Analysis: The recent spike in poll figures for Mayor of San Jose, Johnny Araya, in the race for presidential nomination of National Liberation Party leave challengers Fernando Berrocal and Rodrigo Arias with battles they appear to be meeting in vastly different ways.

Berrocal has launched, more or less, the specifics of his program, directly challenging his rivals to do the same. Arias, by contrast, appeared evasive in an interview published Monday in the national newspaper La Nacion.

Berrocal, a former lawmaker and security minister, unveiled his 140 page reform plan by sending it to the heads of different Legislative Assembly party floor leaders. Download the Berrocal Platform PDF here (Spanish)

His approach seems more as if he were running for president and not a party nomination, as was his previous criticism of Liberation itself. At times, it seems he is running for the independent vote and not Liberation’s.

Still, he is establishing early a role he relishes, that of a statesman. He could be also trying to scoop up the freed votes of those who would have supported ex-President Jose Maria Figueres who has been touring the country peddling his own reforms.

But Figueres decided definitely not to run — or as definitely as politicians do in cases like this — although a deadlock in the convention next year could well “persuade” him differently.

Meanwhile, Berrocal’s rivals are likely studying copies his 140-page book detailing reforms. Among them would be establishing a Ministry of Social Development to engage in a drive against poverty.

Also included would be a Ministry for Economic Development and a plan to create a trust for the Public Works Ministry to improve infrastructure, using money from pension funds and public banks.

He would, says his plan, reduce the projected budget for the 2014 election more than half, from 0.19% of the gross internal product to 0.08%. He would also change legislative electoral systems and reform the Legislative Assembly.

The current system for electing Legislative Assembly deputies is to place the power in the hands of the parties, who select candidate whose names do not appear on the ballot. The percentage of the popular vote for president determines how far down the list of party-selected deputy aspirants will take a seat on the legislative body. Like the U.S. Electoral College and votes by states, it is indirect democracy. It favors political hacks as the U.S. system favors residents of populous states.

Berrocal correctly states that “Liberation is not enough” to enact these reforms and that he is trying to build a “national consensus,” undoubtedly built on the foundation of a Berrocal Presidency.

Certainly, like his previous off-the-wall campaign TV commercials, the plan is a lively change from the drear usual campaign rhetoric. But will it fly?

In an interview with La Nacion published Monday, former Presidency Minister Rodrigo Arias was asked three times by frustrated political reporters Carlos Villalobos and Estaban Mata about Araya’s lead in the polls, only to have him sidestep.

In fact, the interview produced little news and no fire. The closest Arias came to any flavor other than vanilla was when an interviewer asked him about Araya’s public statement that Araya expected a dirty campaign against him.

“Don Johnny is seeing specters where they don’t exist,” replied Arias. Asked if the most recent poll brought changes to his campaign, Arias stepped aside from the question, saying, “There are five months left (before the convention) Politics is very subject to circumstances, very changeable, everything can change in a week…”