On Thursday the National Emergency Commission (Comision Nacional de Emergencias, CNE), presented the latest status update and predictions for the growth of Coronavirus COVID-19 in Costa Rica. The predictions were described by some as worrisome, by others as catastrophic.

The CNE predicts that if the virus continues to progress at the current rate, by mid-August the hospital capacity of the Costa Rica Social Security (CCSS) will be overwhelmed, especially by those needing the Intensive Care Unit (ICU). This is despite herculean efforts by the CCSS to expand the number of hospital beds and staff to prepare for just this kind of catastrophe.
Mario Urcuyo, one of the analysts of the Sala Analysis of the CNE, told the press on Thursday, “If we continue as we are, it is possible that despite the measures taken, we will not be able to face a chaotic situation such as that observed by the predictions we currently have.” Urcuyo predicts a possibly tragic decrease in capacity to treat ICU patients, as well as a severe shortage of personal protective gear for medical staff.

According to Urcuyo, by August 14th the number of patients in the ICU could reach 360 (currently 44), which exceeds the current number of allotted COVID-19 beds in all Costa Rica. Raquel Espinoza, another CNE analyst, elaborated that even now regional medical centers have had to accept COVID patients due to over-crowding in hospitals with more assets devoted to the virus. There have been 11,114 confirmed Coronavirus cases to date in Costa Rica with 62 deaths. (As of Sunday July 19th)

Experts have predicted that Costa Rica will not reach its peak of infections until October of this year.
Espinoza’s CNE report revealed that as of Thursday, Calderon Guardia Hospital was at 77% occupancy, Hospital Mexico at 55%, and San Juan de Dios Hospital was at 67%. This is despite expansion in ICU at all three hospitals, elimination of most elective surgeries, and conversion of some infant wards into COVID facilities.
Alexander Solis, the Executive President of CNE explained further how the CNE analysis was conducted. Solis said the analysis was comprised of three elements: the virus, the vulnerability of people to get sick during times of high contagion, and the degree of exposure to this highly contagious virus.

From the beginning of the pandemic, the Sala de Analysis of CNE has been tasked with both studying the evolution of the virus, and the hospital capacity to handle a possible tsunami of patients. Their predictions presented on Thursday indicate that Costa Rica is not yet heading in the correct direction with this virus.

Medical experts feel the number to watch is not numbers of people with confirmed cases, but the number of people admitted to the hospital suffering from the disease. That number continues to rise. The experts and the Health Ministry maintain that the progress of COVID in Costa Rica remains firmly in the hands of the citizens of Costa Rica.

The Minister of Health continues to urge Ticos to stay at home, wear their masks when away from home, wash their hands, avoid large gatherings, maintain social distances, and put an end to the parties responsible for recent spikes. Everyone’s life depends on cooperation by everyone

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