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Security is a major concern for the million-plus international visitors who arrive in Costa Rica every year as well as for the hundreds of thousands of expatriates who have chosen this country as their new home. This being the case, tourists and expats will probably be surprised to learn that the 2013 Gallup Law and Order Index puts Nicaragua and Panama as the safest nations in Latin America with Costa Rica trailing far behind Chile, Ecuador, Uruguay, Jamaica, and even Colombia.

In May 2012, The Costa Rica Star published an article by James Marshall Black, PhD., who took an investigative approach in his review of statistics provided by the Overseas Advisory Council, press reports, and online data warehouse NationMaster. That article, which happens to be one of the most widely read reports on this site, concluded that Nicaragua and Panama appeared to be safer than Costa Rica from a crime reporting point of view. In other words, Mr. Black’s review determined that statistics on crimes, prosecutions and incarcerations are far more accurate in Costa Rica in comparison to Nicaragua and Panama, and thus a false sense of security could arise from crimes that are not reported or dealt with.

Is Self-Reporting a Better Way to Measure Sentiment?

In the case of the Gallup study mentioned above, it is important to understand the nature of the data:

Gallup’s Law and Order Index, which is based on confidence in local police, feelings of personal safety, and self-reported incidence of theft. Residents of Southeast Asia, East Asia, and the U.S. and Canada were the most likely to feel secure.

 

The relatively poor personal security situation in Latin America and the Caribbean has not significantly improved over the past five years.

 

Eight out of 10 countries with the highest homicide rates are located in Latin America and the Caribbean, with the region accounting for 36% of the world’s homicides in 2012, according to a United Nations report. Furthermore, the Americas have overtaken Africa — where index scores are only slightly higher — as the region with the most murders, largely because of a surge in organized crime.

 

Nicaragua, Panama, and Chile have the highest index scores in the region, and each has seen sizable increases since 2009. The biggest jump was in Ecuador, where all three indicators (number of thefts, perceived security, and confidence in the police) improved considerably. Ecuador’s President Rafael Correa attributes his administration’s success in fighting crime to improving arms control, increasing the judiciary’s independence, and campaigns reinforcing efforts to capture the country’s most dangerous criminals.

It is also worth mentioning that the Gallup Law and Order Index has placed Costa Rica below Nicaragua and Panama in terms of safety since 2009. In fact, this index reflects the statistical improvement of security in our country under the administration of former President Laura Chinchilla, whose firm approach to increase security left Costa Rica with significant debt and prison overcrowding, but at least safety was decidedly increased at a time when tourism is sharply rising.

Quite a few readers of El Nuevo Diario in Nicaragua are highly skeptical of the index, citing government propaganda and indoctrination. Still, this report is reminiscent of the measures of happiness and well-being that placed Costa Rica among the happiest nations on earth. If people in Nicaragua and Panama are feeling safer than those who live in Costa Rica, it sends a strong message. Then again, if the news media is not reporting a lot of crime because law enforcement is not really providing accurate statistics, a false sense of security could ensue.

In the end, North American and European expatriates who come from the safest countries in the world somehow choose Costa Rica over Nicaragua and Panama. This, however, is beginning to change as the country keeps getting more expensive. A few months ago, The Costa Rica Star published a list of countries where expats who find themselves financially squeezed in Costa Rica are considering moving to. Nicaragua and Panama both topped the list, but not exactly in terms of security.